At present, Chinese panel factories have established absolute scale, efficiency and product advantages in the field of large size LCD. Recently, TCL Huaxing and Xinli began to build new LTPS LCD production lines in succession, to further expand China's advantages in small and medium-sized LCD panels, showing the confidence of mainland panel manufacturers in the LCD industry.
However, in the long run, facing the aggressive layout of Korean manufacturers in the OLED technology route, China's LCD industry is not safe. Will the LCD industry repeat the disruptive change that LCD replaced CRT "overnight"?
The LCD panel market continues to expand
Recently, WITH a total investment of 15 billion YUAN, TCL Technology expanded a 6th generation LTPS LCD display panel production line (T5) in Wuhan, which processes 45,000 glass panels per month. It applied VR, touch screen, Mini LED backlight display and LTPO technologies. The main production and sales of small and medium size high value-added IT display, vehicle display, VR display panel. "The expansion will complement the oxide semiconductor display line (T9) in terms of product and technology," TCL said in a statement. "It will help further improve the layout of small and medium size production lines."
Not long ago, Shili Shanwei invested 20 billion yuan to build the sixth generation TFT-LCD production line project, supporting ultra-high resolution LTPS production line, aiming at high-end vehicle display market, industrial medical and Internet of things, mobile phones, tablets, laptops and other small and medium-sized display market demand, aiming at differentiated product layout and seeking development breakthrough point.
Dong Min, deputy secretary general of China Electronic Video Industry Association, explained to reporters the business logic of TCL and Xinli increasing investment in LTPS LCD: At present, mobile phone brands are more inclined to use OLED panels in high-end products, and the penetration rate will continue to increase, but LTPS LCD and A-SI LCD will still have strong vitality, which is determined by the uneven development of the global market and the diversification of users. In addition, LTPS LCD is also a required course for panel manufacturers worldwide to develop and mass-produce OLeds.
In the future, with the support of Mini LED backlight and other new technologies, emerging markets such as vehicle and Internet of things will develop vigorously, and small and medium-sized LCD will still have a broad market space. Liu Yushi, senior analyst at CINNO, told reporters that although the large-scale expansion of domestic LCD panel companies has ended, but in the future, when there is a structural shortage of some applications, panel factories need to allocate capacity in various ways, including new and expansion production lines.
From the perspective of technology iteration, oxide, LTPS and OLED technologies have obvious growth prospects. Li Yaqin, general manager of Qunzhi Consulting, said LTPS have doubled this year, while oxide, which is conservative in the face of LTPS competition, has maintained its growth trend, while OLED has increased even more. At present, oxide and LTPS manufacturers are mainly from South Korea and Taiwan. With the localization of supply chain, panel factories in Mainland China have strong growth opportunities.
OLED is facing both supply and demand challenges
The LCD panel is undergoing the innovation and development of capacity increase and technology upgrade, and is also facing the "squeeze" of OLED panel.
In terms of large size, Omdia research data shows that shipments of large-size TFT LCDS reached 237 million units and 56.8 million square meters in the third quarter of 2021, flat quarter-on-quarter and down year-on-year. The shipments of large-size OLED grew by double digits year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, and Chinese panel manufacturers are also continuously increasing the shipments of large-size OLED panels. For example, Huiko began to promote 8.6 generation production in the second quarter of this year.
In terms of TV terminals, OLED TV panels exclusively supplied by LGD increased the penetration rate of OLED TV panels to 2.6 percent in the first half of this year, with 3.556 million units shipped, according to TrendForce, as the capacity of THE OLED plant in Guangzhou increased and the price gap with LCD TV panel quotations narrowed.
Ricky Park, senior principal analyst at Omdia, noted that Samsung Display has recently mass-produced QD-OLED panels and plans to produce more than 1 million units. LGD plans to produce more than 10 million WOLED TV panels and has begun manufacturing 83-inch and 48-inch OLED TV panels at its Guangzhou plant. LGD wants to break into the larger-size panel market to compete with LCD TV panels.
In terms of small size, THE penetration rate of OLED in mobile phone panel is increasing day by day. Rigid OLED and LTPS LCD are competing in high-end and mid-range smartphone market. Rigid OLED is better due to its fast speed, high contrast and low power consumption, while LTPS LCD occupies more space in mid-range and low-end mobile phone market.
Chinese panel manufacturers are actively expanding the OLED mobile phone panel market. In the third quarter of this year, mainland Manufacturers shipped about 36 million OLED smartphone panels, up about 37.4 percent year on year, with a penetration rate of about 21.6 percent for OLED smartphone panels worldwide, according to GroupWise. Boe's entry into apple's supply chain has made Korean factories face competitive pressure. Vicino and Tianma have successfully introduced applications to domestic mobile phone manufacturers, giving the outside world a strong expectation to increase small-size OLED production capacity.
Ricky Park noted that with the release of new 5G smartphone models and the growth in OLED demand, total SHIPMENTS of TFT LCDS, including LTPS and A-Si, are saturated. The challenge for Chinese panel makers is to advance the technology for mass production of flexible OLeds to catch up with leading South Korean OLED makers.
Regardless of large size or small size, Chinese LCD panel manufacturers are facing strong resistance from Korean OLED and strategic shift of domestic manufacturers.
Take the large-size OLED market as an example. While South Korean manufacturers have the upper hand at present, Chinese manufacturers' cards are mainly focused on the printed OLED route, but it will take some time for their industrialization. Dong Min believes that in the mature large-size field, LCD's performance and technology have been infinite close to OLED and other new-generation display technologies through the improvement of materials, process and supporting backlight, and the cost advantage is extremely obvious. In addition, Chinese panel manufacturers have not yet achieved mass production of OLED, LCD's industrial life will still be quite long.
The LCD industry needs more change
Since 2005, LCD has grown from small size to large size. In 2010, the market growth momentum weakened after the mass production of the 8.5 generation line spread to the market. With the upgrading of products promoted by 5G and the Internet of Things, LCD has ushered in the iterative upgrading of 2K to 4K/8K, high refresh rate, high resolution and other functions. The oxide and LTPS routes have greater growth potential, and in this process, China's display industry has ushered in a new era.
Due to the squeeze of OLED market space, LCD industry will not face the risk of being replaced in the next few years, and repeat the big change that LCD TV strongly replaced CRT TV? LCD industry is facing the crossroads of development. Should we continue to optimize product structure, upgrade technology and explore new scenarios, or make strategic transfer?
In recent years, Ouyang Zhongcan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said many times that LCD panels still have a larger market demand. This time, the reporter interviewed Ouyang Zhongcan, the answer is to maintain the original judgment. Academician Ouyang Zhongcan emphasized that the period of LCD panel will be greatly extended by superimposed Mini LED backlight technology and BD Cell superimposition screen display technology. From the perspective of demand, 4K/8K, larger size and other demands will still promote panel factories to build new large-size production lines.
LCD large size high-end panel has become one of the future development direction. According to TrendForce, LCD 8K TV panel penetration was just 0.2 per cent in the first half of this year, with plenty of potential for future growth. In this sector, TCL Huaxing optoelectronics has a market share of 54.4 percent, followed by AU Optronics with 22.6 percent.
In addition to performance and technological upgrading, the size of the industry camp and the speed of industrialization are another key to judge the competitiveness of a technology. Dong Min believes that LCD TV replaced CRT is mainly to meet basic needs, the market does not need diversified technology. Therefore, after defeating PDP technology, LCD technology quickly eliminated CRT technology. At present, the market in addition to the basic demand is more improved demand, innovative demand. Rich display application scenarios, so that different technical backgrounds and technical paths have corresponding scenes can be "full play". It is not a "life-and-death" competition between various technical routes. In the context of diversified scenes, display technology will flourish for a long time.
For such a variety of technology coexistence, fierce competition environment, Liu Yushi said that the future LCD industry will be from the early years of extensive development, brutal competition to fine development mode.
Dong min also suggested that LCD, in order to maintain its mainstream position, should first make the display index, form, energy consumption and other dimensions fully close to the new generation of display technology through micro-innovation. The second is to continue to improve the supply of raw material diversification and localization, to ensure the safety of management. The third is to accelerate the continuous development of new commercial scenarios and new Internet of Things applications, so as to break the growth bottleneck of traditional consumption scenarios and further improve the quality of operation.
