LCD panel quotation in the recent continuous seesaw. Due to the tight supply of all kinds of IC chips, panel supply is not out of control in the short term, but the noise from downstream demand is increasing day by day. It is expected that prices in July may still rise more than last month, but there may be loosening in August at the earliest.
Although the second-quarter profit forecast of AU Optronics (2409), Innolux Optronics (3481) and Hanyu Color Crystal (6116) is still bright due to the continuous rise of panel price in the second quarter, all panel factories may have a per-share earnings of around 2 yuan in the first half of this year. But in the second half of the profitability can still hold the peak? Investors are more concerned about the focus.
Smaller TV panels, including 32-inch and 43-inch panels, have been flat for two months in a row since June of this year due to increased supply and moderate demand. In the event of a further slowdown in downstream shipments, it is not ruled out that some brand customers will be able to receive the initial price reduction of 32 "and 43" panels in August.
Other sizes and other application panels, the subsequent price trend also depends on the strength of the demand. The focus will be on whether the global sales of personal computers, laptops and LCD TVs will be affected by changes in consumer spending and purchasing priorities after they are unsealed in Europe and the United States.
According to IDC, global shipments of traditional PCs (including desktops, laptops and workstations) reached 83.6 million units in the second quarter of this year, up 13.2 percent from a year earlier. Although still growing, this compares with 55.9 percent growth in the first quarter of this year and 25.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. The strength of growth appears to be slowing.
It remains to be seen whether the pace of PC consumption over the past year or so will be matched or surpassed once businesses return to work and capital spending in business procurement budgets returns to a positive pace.
In terms of panel supply, TrendForce survey shows that the overall panel supply will increase for two consecutive quarters in the second half of this year, with the increase of panel production volume and generation rate from new production lines in the mainland and the release of the increased capacity from the bottleneck of each panel factory quarter by quarter. If the demand slows down slightly, the panel supply and demand may end up tight, turn to loosen. In any case, changes in market demand are the most important indicator to watch right now.
