Recent more electricity, one of the panel center of sichuan, more asked local enterprises to cease, and impact of Beijing east, sun and other panel factory production operations, but the market think favorable market downturn panel is a bit stable, research the institution set state monitor Qiu Yubin think research vice President, electricity supply and demand side, among them, 32, 50 inch TV panel is expected to stabilize this month, However, IT is of limited help to other sizes and IT panels.
In order to ensure the safety of the power grid and the people's livelihood, Sichuan ordered enterprises to stop production and put high temperature holidays. According to statistics, there are at least 8 panel factories in the area, among which there are 5-6 8.5/8.6 generation factories. Panel leader Beijing Oriental (000725-CN) also announced that its total of 4 production lines were affected, and will cooperate with power restriction to minimize the power load. At the same time, carry out routine maintenance of TFT-LCD production line timely.
The impact of AU (2409-TW) and Innolux (3481-TW), which do not have plants in Sichuan and Chongqing, will be limited. Innolux recently pointed out that the shutdown order does not exclude whitelisted companies, and the whitelisted companies can only obtain at most 30% of power, and the initial estimate is that they can only maintain the Cleanroom of their plants. It is estimated that the power cuts will affect 3.6-5% of global supply, which will help ease supply.
Qiu Yubin said, according to the overall market, driven by electricity effect in China contains 32, 50 inch TV panel this month is expected to flat last quarter, due to reduced supply, will accelerate the panel prices fall at the end of time, but because overall demand is still weakness, with focus on supply chain inventory to, think the price is only stabilised, recovery will have to wait until next year, Also echo outside view panel price will present "L word" trend.
Sichuan and other places, however, short-term emergency power brownouts belongs to, Qiu Yubin believes that the second half of the panel industry supply and demand, prices are still under huge pressure, the key is in the manufacturer's production level, the industry supply exceeds demand, is expected in the second half of the panel factory whole grain rate will fall in 75-80%, and has not ruled out because IT panel demand falling again.
Looking at the outlook for the third quarter of Taiwan's panel manufacturers, both showed a stable view of volume reduction, highlighting the continued expansion of loss pressure of manufacturers. Au estimated that the total panel shipment area of this quarter will be reduced by 14 to 16 percent, the average unit price (ASP) is the same as last quarter, and the group also estimated that the shipment of large-size panels will be reduced by 11 to 13 percent. The quarterly average unit price reduction will converge to a quarterly decrease of 1-3% from the original estimate.
